Saturday, February 6, 2010

Oscars 2010: Who will take home the top prizes?

With 10 Best Picture nominees and several surprise nominations, the 2010 Oscars are already shaping up to be an interesting awards ceremony. But who will ultimately take home the top prizes on March 7? And which snubs should have been given a chance?
Best Picture
Avatar
The Blind Side
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Most of the nominees in this category were expected, but there were two major surprises: "District 9" and "The Blind Side." Neill Blomkamp's brilliant sci-fi thriller/apartheid allegory was one of the most critically acclaimed films of the year, but many expected "Avatar" to be the only science fiction film to land a spot. And while Sandra Bullock has been earning awards buzz for "The Blind Side" no one expected the film to win a Best Picture nomination instead of critical and fan favorites "Star Trek" and "The Hangover."

While "Up in the Air" and "Inglourious Basterds" could be contenders, the real race is between "Avatar" and "The Hurt Locker." Both outstanding films in their own right, many people expect "Avatar" to win because it's proved to be such a financial juggernaut. The last time a movie was so financially successful was "Titanic," James Cameron's other huge success that took home Best Picture.

But "The Hurt Locker," which has remained the little movie that could since its summer release, just might steal "Avatar's" glory on Oscar night. While "Avatar" took home the Golden Globe, it has remained largely absent from the guild awards. "The Hurt Locker" took home the Producer's Guild and Director's Guild awards, cementing it as real competition for "Avatar." In 54 out of the past 60 years, the DGA winner has won Best Picture. Don't be surprised if Kathryn Bigelow's little movie that could edges out Cameron's box office juggernaut.

Will win: The Hurt Locker
Should win: The Hurt Locker
Should have been nominated: Star Trek

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Colin Firth, "A Single Man"
Morgan Freeman, "Invictus"
Jeremy Renner, "The Hurt Locker"

Best Actor is perhaps the strongest category this year. Every actor who is nominated gave a phenomenal performance. For Bridges, Clooney and Firth, these performances are regarded by many critics as their career bests. This category is so competitive that other incredible performers like Sharlto Copley of "District 9," Tobey Maguire of "Brothers" and Sam Rockwell of "Moon" were left out.

Bridges has won most of the major awards so far, and with four previous nominations and no wins, many people seem to feel it's his time to take home the gold. His stiffest competition is probably Clooney, whose charismatic but damaged Ryan Bingham showed the actor at his best. Both actors have strong support, but expect Bridges to take home the gold.

Will win: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"
Should win: George Clooney, "Up in the Air"
Should have been nominated: Sam Rockwell, "Moon"

Best Actress
Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Helen Mirren, "The Last Station"
Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Gabourey Sidibe, "Precious"
Meryl Streep, "Julie and Julia"

Most critics consider this category to be a race between Bullock and Streep. Both have been garnering award after award for their performances, including Golden Globes, but Bullock edged out Streep for the Screen Actors Guild award. "The Blind Side" proved Bullock's range extends far beyond her typical romantic comedy roles, and people are loving her as much for her incredible comeback year as for her "Blind Side" performance. She has the edge at this point, but newcomers Mulligan and Sidibe could potentially sweep in for an upset.

Will win: Sandra Bullock, "The Blind Side"
Should win: Carey Mulligan, "An Education"
Should have been nominated: Emily Blunt, "The Young Victoria"

Best Supporting Actor
Matt Damon, "Invictus"
Woody Harrelson, "The Messenger"
Christopher Plummer, "The Last Station"
Stanley Tucci, "The Lovely Bones"
Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"

There is no question Waltz is going to walk away with the Supporting Actor prize. He's swept every major award so far and shows no signs of slowing down for his role as the vile but funny "Jew Hunter" of "Inglourious Basterds." The real surprise here is a nomination for Plummer, who edged out the supporting men of "An Education," Alfred Molina and Peter Sarsgaard.

Will win: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
Should win: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"
Should have been nominated: Alfred Molina, "An Education"

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, "Nine"
Vera Farmiga, "Up in the Air"
Maggie Gyllenhaal, "Crazy Heart"
Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"
Mo'Nique, "Precious"

Like the Supporting Actor category, Supporting Actress is a lock. Mo'Nique has deservedly picked up all of the major awards in this category and she will undoubtedly take the Oscar home. Farmiga and Kendrick were both amazing in "Up in the Air," but Mo'Nique's flawless portrayal of an abusive mother stands out above the other nominees.

Cruz seems to be riding on the success of her win last year with her nomination for "Nine," a very underwhelming film. Gyllenhaal's nomination came out of no where, as she hasn't been nominated for any other major awards prior to this. One noticeable absence is Julianne Moore, who has gained awards recognition for her role in "A Single Man" but was shut out here.

Will win: Mo'Nique, "Precious"
Should win: Mo'Nique, "Precious"
Should have been nominated: Julianne Moore, "A Single Man"

Best Director
Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
James Cameron, "Avatar"
Lee Daniels, "Precious"
Jason Reitman, "Up in the Air"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"

Like the Best Picture race, this category is between Bigelow and Cameron. Most people seem to think Cameron is a sure thing, expecting the same awards success he saw with "Titanic." Cameron's technology has changed the way blockbuster films will be made, but Bigelow's intense, edge-of-your-seat, highly detailed direction has also resonated strongly with critics and audiences alike.

Cameron may have taken home the Golden Globe, but Bigelow nabbed the Director's Guild prize. In the past 60 years, 58 DGA winners have gone on to win the Oscar. If Bigelow does win, she'll be the first woman to take home the Best Director Oscar. She shouldn't win just because she would be the first woman - she should win because she really is the best nominee this year. Cameron's movie may have been more financially successful, but Bigelow's DGA win means people shouldn't write her off just yet.

Will win: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
Should win: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"
Should have been nominated: Neill Blomkamp, "District 9"

Best Original Screenplay
Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"
Quentin Tarantino, "Inglourious Basterds"
Alessandro Camon and Oren Moverman, "The Messenger"
Joel Coen and Ethan Coen, "A Serious Man"
Pete Docter, Thomas McCarthy and Bob Peterson, "Up"

Most of the nominees in this category were expected. The nomination for "The Messenger" came as a bit of a surprise, edging out the popular "(500) Days of Summer." Any of the other nominees could have a shot, but "The Hurt Locker" will likely take this category as well.

Will win: Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"
Should win: Mark Boal, "The Hurt Locker"
Should have been nominated: Scott Neustadter and Michael H. Weber, "(500) Days of Summer"

Best Adapted Screenplay
Neil Blomkamp and Terri Tatchell, "District 9"
Nick Hornby, "An Education"
Jess Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, "In the Loop"
Geoffrey Fletcher, "Precious"
Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, "Up in the Air"

Most of the nominees in this category were also expected, with the exception of the little-seen "In the Loop," which swooped in out of nowhere to steal the fifth slot from "Fantastic Mr. Fox." All of the nominees are solid contenders, but this is probably the one category in which "Up in the Air" will score a win. The film has gained too much recognition at the critics' awards to walk away empty handed, but the competition in the other categories is so stiff, a screenplay trophy might be its best shot.

Will win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, "Up in the Air"
Should win: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, "Up in the Air"
Should have been nominated: Wes Anderson and Noah Baumbach, "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

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