Oscar Predictions and Winners

Best Picture
This is one of the few categories in which the winner is almost a sure thing. It was unlikely for “The Reader” to even be nominated, and while “Frost/Nixon” has been nominated consistently throughout awards season, it hasn’t garnered any wins. The visually stunning “Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and the politically topical “Milk” could be contenders. But the poignant, beautiful and emotionally powerful “Slumdog Millionaire” has swept every other major awards race so far and probably won’t stop now.
Will win: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Should win: “Slumdog Millionaire”
Should have been nominated: “The Dark Knight”

Best Actor
Veteran character actor Richard Jenkins finally got the chance to shine with his subtle performance in “The Visitor,” Brad Pitt did a solid job breathing life into every age of “Benjamin Button” and Frank Langella did a remarkable job balancing Richard Nixon’s humanity and corruptness in “Frost/Nixon.”
But this race is really between Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke. Rourke tugged at audiences’ heartstrings and showed real versatility with his comeback role in “The Wrestler.” But Penn’s incredible portrayal of Harvey Milk, California’s first openly gay politician, has picked up steam following his SAG Award win, and many critics cite its relevance in light of the Proposition 8 controversy.
Will win: Sean Penn, “Milk”
Should win: Sean Penn
Should have been nominated: Leonardo DiCaprio, “Revolutionary Road”

Best Actress
Angelina Jolie and Melissa Leo will likely not take home an award for their roles in “Changeling” and “Frozen River” respectively, but the other three lead actresses are all contenders.
Academy favorite Meryl Streep gives another strong and intense performance in “Doubt,” and Anne Hathaway proves she’s left behind her “Princess Diaries” days with her gritty portrayal of a recovering alcoholic in “Rachel Getting Married.” But Kate Winslet has taken home trophy after trophy for her role in ‘The Reader,” and a switch to the lead category from the supporting category shouldn’t stop her this time.
Will win: Kate Winslet, “The Reader”
Should win: Anne Hathaway, “Rachel Getting Married”
Should have been nominated: Cate Blanchett, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”

Best Supporting Actor
This category should be a lock. Michael Shannon stands out in his few scenes as a mentally ill mathematician in “Revolutionary Road.” Robert Downey Jr. proves his comedic genius playing an Australian playing a black man in “Tropic Thunder.” Philip Seymour Hoffman gives another brilliant performance as a priest accused of molestation in “Doubt.” Josh Brolin tackles the role of Harvey Milk’s assassin with ease.
But this year, no one can compare to the sheer magnitude of Heath Ledger’s Joker in “The Dark Knight.” Ledger has dominated this category at other awards thanks to his ability to immerse himself in this psychopathic and darkly comic character. And on Sunday, he should become the second actor in history (after “Network’s” Peter Finch) to win an Oscar posthumously.
Will win: Heath Ledger, “The Dark Knight”
Should win: Heath Ledger
Should have been nominated: Dev Patel, “Slumdog Millionaire”

Best Supporting Actress
This race is the hardest to call. Amy Adams and Viola Davis are both amazing in “Doubt,” but will likely split the vote since they are nominated for the same film. Taraji P. Henson is remarkable as “Benjamin Button’s” surrogate mother but has failed to pick up steam at other major awards.
This category will likely come down to “Vicky Cristina Barcelona’s” Penelope Cruz and “The Wrestler’s” Marisa Tomei. Both have swept the critics awards. They lost to Kate Winslet at the Golden Globes and the SAG Awards, but her move to the lead category clears the path for one of them here.
Will win: Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Should win: Taraji P. Henson, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Should have been nominated: Rosemarie DeWitt, “Rachel Getting Married”

Best Director
“Milk’s” Gus Van Sant and “Frost/Nixon’s” Ron Howard both did solid work this year but don’t stand out enough from their competition. Unless “The Reader’s” Stephen Daldry pulls an upset as surprising as his nomination, he’ll likely go home empty handed as well.
David Fincher’s fantastical world of “Benjamin Button” is certainly worthy of recognition. But Danny Boyle’s ability to combine tragedy, hope, raw emotion and visual appeal paired with his Director’s Guild win should ensure the man behind “Slumdog Millionaire” a prize.
Will win: Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Should win: Danny Boyle
Should have been nominated: Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Best Adapted Screenplay
There should be no real surprises in this category, with four out of five nominees also best picture nominees. “Benjamin Button,” “Frost/Nixon,” “The Reader” and “Doubt” all have strong scripts, but “Slumdog Millionaire” still stands out above the rest.
Will win: Simon Beaufoy, “Slumdog Millionaire”
Should win: Simon Beaufoy
Should have been nominated: Christopher and Jonathan Nolan, “The Dark Knight”

Best Original Screenplay
“Frozen River,” “In Bruges” and particularly “Happy Go Lucky” could potentially pull upsets, but the race is likely between “Milk’s” Dustin Lance Black and “WALL-E’s” Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon.
The “WALL-E” team’s futuristic story combined with silent movie style played out brilliantly onscreen. But while it would be nice to see the film get some recognition in a major category, the Academy will likely go with Black’s inspiring “Milk” script, especially given its relevance amid the Proposition 8 controversy.
Will win: Dustin Lance Black, “Milk”
Should win: Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter and Jim Reardon, “WALL-E”
Should have been nominated: Ben Stiller, Justin Theroux and Etan Cohen, “Tropic Thunder”

And now the complete list of nominees and winners, with my predictions indicated in bold and the winners in bold parentheses:

Best picture
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire" (winner)

Director
Danny Boyle, "Slumdog Millionaire" (winner)
Stephen Daldry, "The Reader"
David Fincher, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Ron Howard, "Frost/Nixon"
Gus Van Sant, "Milk"

Actor
Richard Jenkins, "The Visitor"
Frank Langella, "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn, "Milk" (winner)
Brad Pitt, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"

Actress
Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Melissa Leo, "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep, "Doubt"
Kate Winslet, "The Reader" (winner)

Supporting actor
Josh Brolin, "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr., "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt"
Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight" (winner)
Michael Shannon, "Revolutionary Road"

Supporting actress
Amy Adams, "Doubt"
Penelope Cruz, "Vicky Cristina Barcelona" (winner)
Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson, "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei, "The Wrestler"

Animated feature
"Bolt"
"Kung Fu Panda"
"WALL-E" (winner)

Adapted screenplay
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," screenplay by Eric Roth, screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
"Doubt," written by John Patrick Shanley
"Frost/Nixon," screenplay by Peter Morgan
"The Reader," screenplay by David Hare
"Slumdog Millionaire," screenplay by Simon Beaufoy (winner)

Original screenplay
"Frozen River," written by Courtney Hunt
"Happy-Go-Lucky," written by Mike Leigh
"In Bruges," written by Martin McDonagh
"Milk," written by Dustin Lance Black (winner)
"WALL-E," screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon; original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

Art direction
"Changeling," James J. Murakami; set decoration: Gary Fettis
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Donald Graham Burt; set decoration: Victor J. Zolfo (winner)
"The Dark Knight," Nathan Crowley; set decoration: Peter Lando
"The Duchess," Michael Carlin; set decoration: Rebecca Alleway
"Revolutionary Road," Kristi Zea; set decoration: Debra Schutt

Cinematography
"Changeling," Tom Stern
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Claudio Miranda
"The Dark Knight," Wally Pfister
"The Reader," Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
"Slumdog Millionaire," Anthony Dod Mantle (winner)

Costume design
"Australia," Catherine Martin
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Jacqueline West
"The Duchess," Michael O'Connor (winner)
"Milk," Danny Glicker
"Revolutionary Road," Albert Wolsky

Documentary feature
"The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)"
"Encounters at the End of the World"
"The Garden"
"Man on Wire" (winner)
"Trouble the Water"

Documentary short
(no prediction)
"The Conscience of Nhem En"
"The Final Inch"
"Smile Pinki" (winner)
"The Witness -- From the Balcony of Room 306"

Film editing
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
"The Dark Knight," Lee Smith
"Frost/Nixon," Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
"Milk," Elliot Graham
"Slumdog Millionaire," Chris Dickens (winner)

Foreign language film
"The Baader Meinhof Complex," Germany
"The Class," France
"Departures," Japan (winner)
"Revanche," Austria
"Waltz with Bashir," Israel

Makeup
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Greg Cannom (winner)
"The Dark Knight," John Caglione Jr. and Conor O'Sullivan
"Hellboy II: The Golden Army," Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Original score
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Alexandre Desplat
"Defiance," James Newton Howard
"Milk," Danny Elfman
"Slumdog Millionaire," A.R. Rahman (winner)
"WALL-E," Thomas Newman

Original song
"Down to Earth" from "WALL-E," music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, lyrics by Peter Gabriel
"Jai Ho" from "Slumdog Millionaire," music by A.R. Rahman, lyrics by Gulzar (winner)
"O Saya" from "Slumdog Millionaire," music and lyrics by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Animated short

(no prediction)

"La Maison en Petits Cubes" (winner)
"Lavatory -- Lovestory"
"Oktapodi"
"Presto"
"This Way Up"

Live-action short

(no prediction)

"Auf der Strecke (On the Line)"
"Manon on the Asphalt"
"New Boy"
"The Pig"
"Spielzeugland" (winner)

Sound editing
"The Dark Knight," Richard King (winner)
"Iron Man," Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
"Slumdog Millionaire," Glenn Freemantle and Tom Sayers
"WALL-E," Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
"Wanted," Wylie Stateman

Sound mixing
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
"The Dark Knight," Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
"Slumdog Millionaire," Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty (winner)
"WALL-E," Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
"Wanted," Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Visual effects
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron (winner)
"The Dark Knight," Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
"Iron Man," John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan